The Extratextuals

Not much change from last week, so I’ll spare you the full list and numbers. Suffice it to say:

• NCIS: LA is still doing really well, ranking #4 in overall viewers, and #19 in the 18-49 demo, easily the most successful of the class of 2009
• Glee, The Vampire Diaries, and Jay Leno’s Thursday night all had their best ratings to date
• Modern Family, Flash Forward, and Accidentally on Purpose recovered a bit from weaker showings the previous week
• Three Rivers and Eastwick edged closer to oblivion, both slipping slightly
• And Melrose Place is back in the undisputed last place, in both overall viewers and 18-49 demo ratings (and in class)
• Viewing in general was up last week, about a quarter of a million people per show on average. Measure the above three failures relative to that

So, my cancellation predictions remain the same as last week

new shows, ratings Nielsen, ratings

Tv By the Numbers just updated their Cancel/Renew Index for scripted shows (note: no reality, sports, news, or Jay), which divides a show’s demo ratings by its network’s average ratings to get a sense of how it’s performing relative to its colleagues. Go read, but some highlights:

• Most at risk are Til Death with an anemic 0.28, Brothers at 0.31, and Dollhouse at 0.33. All are FOX shows, so you gotta figure they’ll kill off the first two in time for the American Idolization of TV in January (if not earlier), and though FOX announced that it will play all 13 episodes of Dollhouse, you gotta figure that’s it.
• NBC’s worst performing show is Law and Order, at 0.48. Its worst new show is Trauma at 0.72
• CBS’s worst performing show is Numb3rs (which, like L&O is on Friday, so surely it has a little extra slack) at 0.54. Close behind is its newbie struggler, Three Rivers at 0.58
• ABC’s worst performing show is Hank at 0.64
• The CW’s bottom-feeder is (what else?) Melrose Place at 0.80
• The best performing new show? The CW’s Vampire Diaries at 1.65, though FOX’s The Cleveland Show is also doing very well at 1.52
• The best show overall is ABC’s Desperate Housewives at a whopping 2.09

new shows, ratings cancellations, ratings

A look at how the new shows fared this past week, with ranking within 18-49 demo ratings, and ranking of total viewers in parentheses:

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The Hits

• NCIS: LA (13, 3) has dropped in the 18-49 demo since starting, but is still going strong
• The Cleveland Show (14, 38) is up from a regular success, since it’s in the top 20 in the demo. It’s slipped, so it might go back down, but for now it’s doing very well

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The Successes

• The Good Wife (32, 9) is a really solid performer, without the volatile numbers that characterize many other new shows (see below), and with strong total viewer numbers
• Flash Forward (31, 28) had a bad week, dropping from the top 20 to 31 in the demo, and down 3.36 million viewers from its premier. But ABC picked it up for the season, so it’s on firm footing
• Modern Family (27, 31) is in a similar situation to FF: down in the demo, 4.28 million viewers down from its premier, yet picked up for the season and still doing okay
• Cougar Town (30, 37) also got picked up, dropped in the demo, and lost viewers
• Glee (28, 43) offers a rare situation: it’s doing better, up 8 spots in the demo since 2 weeks ago, and up 7 spots in viewers
• Vampire Diaries (60, 70), like The Good Wife, just keeps moving along with the same numbers, all of which are very impressive for The CW

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Middling

• Accidentally on Purpose (37, 48) is continuing a slow creep downwards, but is doing better than New Adventures and Gary Unmarried, so it’s probably safe for now
• the forgotten (51, 32) is struggling, and could easily drop a level
• Mercy (56, 44) is probably only protected by being the least unsuccessful of three new unsuccessful medical dramas
• The Middle (49, 52) is exactly there, in the middle, though it got picked up for a season, so clearly ABC have some trust in it … for now
• Jay Leno (best 47, 55; worst 71, 69) can do okay on Tuesdays, but otherwise is doing poorly

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Drop Zone

• Three Rivers (62, 41) has lousy demo numbers, not horrible, but low enough to make it CBS’s most cull-able new show
• Hank (64, 53) was tellingly the only sitcom not to get a full pick-up this week from ABC, and with its numbers, I’d be surprised to see it around much longer
• Community (52, 66) got a slightly new timeslot this week, sign #1 of being cut, and it dropped 17 spots in the demo, sign #2 of being cut
• Trauma (57, 62) has bad numbers, and “wins” the worst-performing medical drama sweepstakes
• Eastwick (55, 65) has gone down 20 spots in the demo and 29 in overall viewers in 2 weeks. I’d say it’s easily ABC’s most likely to be killed
• Brothers (80, 74) was dead last in the 18-49 demo, and close to that in overall viewers. Surely it will be axed
• Melrose Place (78, 80) had its best week, but when that equates to 78 in the demo, and last (80) in overall viewers, that’s pretty awful. Would somebody tell CW that Aaron Spelling is dead?

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Other Observations

• Total viewership is down about 800,000 per show on average from two weeks ago
• This week’s top 10 were (from top to bottom) Sunday Night Football, Grey’s Anatomy, House, The Office (yay Jim and Pam!), Desperate Housewives, Family Guy, Big Bang Theory, NCIS, Football Night in America, and Two and a Half Men in the demo, and NCIS, Dancing with the Stars, NCIS: LA, Sunday Night Football, 60 Minutes, CSI, The Mentalist, Grey’s Anatomy, The Good Wife, and Criminal Minds in total viewers
• Who says sitcoms are dead? 4 of those top 10 in the 18-49 demo are sitcoms, DH is a comedy more broadly conceived, and Grey’s is comically bad, if that counts

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new shows, ratings Nielsen, ratings

Now that I have another week of Nielsen ratings to work with, let’s reevaluate how the new shows are doing. After the fold …
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new shows, ratings Nielsen, ratings

Continuing with the reviews, with a bit more speed and brevity, after the fold …

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A brief pause from reviews to discuss the passing of Beautiful Life, and the low ratings of Brothers. Both cases illustrate how much the extratextuals matter. After the fold …
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More reviews, after the fold …
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A pause from the reviews now to look at the new show’s numbers, and to discuss what those numbers tell us about the past five days, the “first official week” of the Fall season. After the fold …
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More reviews after the fold, with comments on gender in Mercy and Eastwick. I’m running out of ways to say things are mediocre to piddling, though …

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new shows, reviews Eastwick, gender, Mercy, pilots, The Forgotten

Three degrees of meh. Reviews after the fold …

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new shows, reviews Accidentally on Purpose, NCIS: LA, pilots, The Good Wife